On Social Justice
I’ve commented, elsewhere for certain and maybe here, that I think that the SJM has, in an important way, “peaked”. Indeed, I think it peaked nearly a decade ago.
In another important way - it peaked several years later. And in yet another important way, maybe the peak hasn’t yet come.
The important thing to understand, to understand this position, is that ideology is a flow, not a pool. Originators create ideas; ideas flow to influencers. Influencers propogate these ideas; this flows to the general public. Then the general public consumes them.
Imagine a river flowing from ice melt on a mountain - in this metaphor, originators are the snowstorm that deposited the ideas, and the ideas can be frozen there for some time. Or, in more favorable conditions, it rains; the ideas flow readily, but do not accumulate. But, for the ice deposits, eventually, usually, the ice melts, and the ideas flow down into the mountain in a steady stream.
Here they form the beginning of a river, rapids which can pour down with surprise speed and strength, once inertia is on their side, although sometimes the trickle is initially slow, pooling and moving in starts and stops, as it can take time to erode channels in the mountain to better facilitate the flow. But then it reaches the bottom of the mountain, and here, things slow further, without gravity to assist them, only the pressure of ideas still upstream. At first, without channels, it basically just forms a flood that washes away some landscape, but doesn’t really go anywhere before evaporating or pooling somewhere - but the ideas erode the landscape, carving paths, bringing the water farther and farther. Once it grows large enough, it will claim tributaries, whose random walk can bring them into contact, which add their flow into this river - influencers expand upon the ideas, transform them, expand them, and most importantly, bring the public in to join the flow.
The first peak, which I believe has passed, represents the maximum ice melt; as the ice melts, it depletes itself, the surface area decreases and so does the thermal mass, and the melt intensifies. Soon there’s no ice left in that particular deposit. Originators have moved on from the SJM; it has become, in an important sense, bankrupt of its initial idea deposits. It still rains sometimes, but it will never have the force it once had.
But just because the ice has melted doesn’t mean the ideas are done; the next peak is when it has claimed as many tributaries as it will - which, because of the nature of their randomwalk, is more statistical than deterministic. As time goes on, the random-walk of the tributaries can bring them elsewhere, as others come back; this is the peak of the influencers, when the random-walk means they aren’t being added any faster than they’re being subtracted. This peak can be quite sustained, or quite short. This, too, has peaked, and I believe is on the decline; the randomwalk has brought influencers to other ideas.
The water the influencers bring is the general public they carry with them. They add it to the river. The river grows broad, and deep, and slow; this is the third peak. But it begins to deposit silt and other material from upstream; scandals, problems, criticisms. It grows shallow. And, eventually, it fills itself in, and there is nothing left but the tributaries, continuing to wander in their randomwalk, in an endless search of new ideologies. This peak I am less certain about, but I think we may have even crossed it; certainly the scandals, problems, and criticisms seem to be filling the river in faster than the stream of ideas is washing them out. The ideology looks to be getting rather shallow.
See, the thing about the river is, the river empties out into the ocean. The ideas join the myriad other ideas in the ocean, no longer special or unique, just another drop in a vast ocean. That is - the public gets bored and moves on to some other new thing.
Social justice is significantly depleted of its idea reserves; if there’s any ice left on that mountain, it isn’t much.
Eventually other ice deposits melt, and carve paths - or, very frequently, carve themselves into a path that is already well-worn. This is kind of important, in the metaphor - a path that is too well-worn can deplete the water faster than it can accumulate. Ideas that are too similar to ideas we’re already familiar with in our cultural landscape can thus deplete themselves without significantly contributing to the landscape itself; an idea that flows past the public without ever accumulating enough to form a movement around itself.
But sometimes, old channels can help new ideas flourish faster; if they aren’t too well-carved, or have filled in some, enough to slow the ideas enough to let them accumulate. This is particularly true if the environment is particularly unfriendly to these ideas, freezing them up on their mountain, to slowly accumulate. And old rivers can run again - the bedrock has already been carved, and it is easier to wash the old silt away than it is to carve granite.
Part of the incredible value of free speech is that it creates an environment friendly to flow; if you let racists be racist, it all just washes downstream. When you freeze their ideas on the mountain, to accumulate and grow - well.
That’s how you get rivers.